The directed panspermia refers to a mechanism that explains the origin of life on planet Earth, due to a supposed inoculation of life or its fundamental precursors, by an extraterrestrial civilization.
In such a scenario, the extraterrestrial civilization should have considered the conditions of planet Earth as suitable for the development of life and have sent an inoculum that has successfully reached our planet..
On the other hand, the hypothesis of panspermia, raises the possibility that life was not generated on our planet, but had an extraterrestrial origin, but that it reached Earth accidentally through multiple different possible ways (such as adhering to meteorites that collided with Earth).
In this hypothesis of (undirected) panspermia, it is then considered that the origin of life on Earth was extraterrestrial, but was not due to the intervention of an extraterrestrial civilization (as proposed by the mechanism of directed panspermia).
From a scientific point of view, directed panspermia cannot be considered a hypothesis, due to the lack of evidence to support it..
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We know that a scientific hypothesis it is a logical proposition about a phenomenon, based on information and data collected. A hypothesis can be confirmed or refuted, through the application of the scientific method.
The hypothesis is formulated with the intention of providing a possibility for the resolution of a problem, on the scientific basis.
On the other hand, we know that by guess it is understood, a judgment or opinion that is formulated from incomplete indications or data.
Although the panspermia could be considered as a hypothesis, since there is some little evidence that could support it as an explanation about the origin of life on our planet, the directed panspermia cannot be considered as a hypothesis from a scientific point of view, for the following reasons:
It is preferable, from a formal point of view, to think of directed panspermia as a “possible” mechanism, rather than as a hypothesis or conjecture..
If we consider directed panspermia as a possible mechanism, We must do so considering the probabilities of its occurrence (because as we have commented, there is no evidence to support it).
We can evaluate three possible scenarios in which directed panspermia could have occurred on Earth. We will do it, according to the possible locations or origins of the extraterrestrial civilizations that could have inoculated life on our planet..
It could be possible that the origin of that extraterrestrial civilization has been:
In the first and second scenarios described, the distances that the "Inocula of life" They would be huge (many millions of light years in the first case and on the order of about 2 million light years in the second). Which allows us to conclude that the chances of success would be almost zero, very close to zero..
In the third scenario described, the probabilities would be a little higher, however, they would remain very low, because the distances they should have traveled are still considerable..
In order to understand these distances, we must do some calculations.
It should be taken into account that when "close" is said in the context of the universe, it refers to enormous distances.
For example, Alpha Centauri C, which is the closest star to our planet, is 4.24 light years away..
For the inoculum of life to have reached Earth from a planet orbiting Alpha Centauri C, it should have traveled uninterruptedly, for a little more than four years at a speed of 300,000 km / s (four light years)..
Let's see what these figures mean:
We can conclude from the simple calculations presented above that there are regions of the universe so far apart that, although life had arisen early on another planet and an intelligent civilization had considered directed panspermia, the distance that separates us would not have allowed some artifact designed for such purposes would have reached our solar system.
Perhaps it could be assumed that the journey of the inoculum through wormholes or similar structures (seen in science fiction movies).
But none of these possibilities has been scientifically verified, since these topological characteristics of a spacetime are hypothetical (so far).
Everything that has not been verified experimentally with the scientific method, remains as speculation. A speculation is an idea that is not well founded, because it does not respond to a real basis.
Directed panspermia can be very attractive to a curious and imaginative reader, as well as theories of "Fecund Universes" of Lee Smolin or that of "Multiverses" by Max Tegmark.
All these theories open up very interesting possibilities and pose complex visions of the universe that we can imagine.
However, these "theories" or "proto-theories" have the weakness of lacking evidence and, furthermore, they do not pose predictions that can be experimentally contrasted, fundamental requirements to validate any scientific theory..
Despite what was raised earlier in this article, we must remember that the vast majority of scientific theories are constantly renewed and reformulated.
We can even observe that in the last 100 years, very few theories have been verified..
The evidences that have supported new theories and that have allowed to verify older ones, such as the theory of relativity, have emerged from new novel ways of posing hypotheses and designing experiments.
We must also consider that technological advances provide new ways to test hypotheses that previously could have seemed refutable, due to the lack of adequate technological tools at the time..
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